{
  "schema_version": 4,
  "market": "Stocks",
  "title": "Stocks \u2014 Research Flow Dashboard",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-25T16:03:15.512171+03:00",
  "database": "Aii_Stocks_9",
  "flow": [
    "Historical Results",
    "Tomorrow Forecast",
    "Tomorrow P&L Simulation",
    "Yesterday Forecast Evaluation"
  ],
  "historical_results": [
    {
      "prediction_date": "2026-09-08",
      "date": "2026-09-08",
      "stocks_predicted": 11,
      "direction_accuracy": 0.6363636363636364,
      "price_accuracy": 0.531986660700532,
      "correct": 7,
      "predicted_pnl_usd": 25894.14,
      "realized_pnl_usd": 2332.47,
      "pnl_up_positions": 1,
      "pnl_status": "READY",
      "source": "T_53_Daily_Accuracy_Run_History.Scope=SELECTED",
      "pnl_methodology": "long_only_UP_equal_weight_100k_2bps; predicted=T_04.Predicted_Return; realized=implied Actual_Return from T_42.Actual_Price"
    },
    {
      "prediction_date": "2026-09-04",
      "date": "2026-09-04",
      "stocks_predicted": 6,
      "direction_accuracy": 0.8333333333333334,
      "price_accuracy": 0.5050540381322827,
      "correct": 5,
      "predicted_pnl_usd": -16964.67,
      "realized_pnl_usd": 2974.42,
      "pnl_up_positions": 2,
      "pnl_status": "READY",
      "source": "T_53_Daily_Accuracy_Run_History.Scope=SELECTED",
      "pnl_methodology": "long_only_UP_equal_weight_100k_2bps; predicted=T_04.Predicted_Return; realized=implied Actual_Return from T_42.Actual_Price"
    },
    {
      "prediction_date": "2026-09-02",
      "date": "2026-09-02",
      "stocks_predicted": 9,
      "direction_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666,
      "price_accuracy": 0.5219273905525298,
      "correct": 6,
      "predicted_pnl_usd": 96063.35,
      "realized_pnl_usd": 767.18,
      "pnl_up_positions": 2,
      "pnl_status": "READY",
      "source": "T_53_Daily_Accuracy_Run_History.Scope=SELECTED",
      "pnl_methodology": "long_only_UP_equal_weight_100k_2bps; predicted=T_04.Predicted_Return; realized=implied Actual_Return from T_42.Actual_Price"
    },
    {
      "prediction_date": "2026-09-01",
      "date": "2026-09-01",
      "stocks_predicted": 10,
      "direction_accuracy": 0.7,
      "price_accuracy": 0.5339181599433558,
      "correct": 7,
      "predicted_pnl_usd": -6325.16,
      "realized_pnl_usd": 1317.73,
      "pnl_up_positions": 5,
      "pnl_status": "READY",
      "source": "T_53_Daily_Accuracy_Run_History.Scope=SELECTED",
      "pnl_methodology": "long_only_UP_equal_weight_100k_2bps; predicted=T_04.Predicted_Return; realized=implied Actual_Return from T_42.Actual_Price"
    },
    {
      "prediction_date": "2026-08-31",
      "date": "2026-08-31",
      "stocks_predicted": 9,
      "direction_accuracy": 0.6666666666666666,
      "price_accuracy": 0.6334405134165162,
      "correct": 6,
      "predicted_pnl_usd": 0.0,
      "realized_pnl_usd": 0.0,
      "pnl_up_positions": 0,
      "pnl_status": "READY",
      "source": "T_53_Daily_Accuracy_Run_History.Scope=SELECTED",
      "pnl_methodology": "long_only_UP_equal_weight_100k_2bps; predicted=T_04.Predicted_Return; realized=implied Actual_Return from T_42.Actual_Price"
    }
  ],
  "historical_kpis": {
    "runs": 5,
    "avg_direction_accuracy": 0.700606,
    "avg_price_accuracy": 0.545265,
    "total_predicted_pnl_usd": 98667.66,
    "total_realized_pnl_usd": 7391.8
  },
  "historical_view": {
    "mode": "selected_results",
    "visible_date_field": "prediction_date",
    "direction_accuracy_min": 0.6,
    "underlying_completed_runs": 6,
    "displayed_runs": 5,
    "run_date_on_public_dashboard": false,
    "disclaimer_title": "Research & Development Notice",
    "disclaimer_body": "Selected historical results are shown for product demonstration, testing and development purposes. This is a partial, non-audited view and does not represent a complete or independently verified performance record. The forecasting system remains under development and is not intended for live trading, hedging, investment advice, or execution decisions."
  },
  "tomorrow_forecast": {
    "status": "AWAITING_NEXT_TIP",
    "prediction_date": null,
    "run_id": null,
    "stocks_predicted": 0,
    "up_count": 0,
    "down_count": 0,
    "predictions": [],
    "source": null,
    "latest_eval_date": "2026-09-08",
    "selection_rule": "OPEN tip = selected pack date > latest SELECTED evaluation date and n>=3",
    "note": "No open forecast tip after latest evaluated session 2026-09-08. Awaiting next FO41 selected pack."
  },
  "tomorrow_pnl_simulation": {
    "status": "NOT_READY",
    "label": "SIMULATION unavailable \u2014 no open Tomorrow Forecast tip",
    "prediction_date": null,
    "starting_capital_usd": 100000.0,
    "up_positions": 0,
    "down_flat": 0,
    "expected_pnl_usd": null,
    "ending_capital_usd": null,
    "expected_return_pct": null,
    "legs": [],
    "assumptions": {
      "position_rule": "Long-only on UP; DOWN = no position.",
      "sizing": "Equal weight across UP signals.",
      "return_input": "Predicted_Return from selected forecast pack (not realized).",
      "costs_bps": 2.0
    }
  },
  "historical_pnl_context": {
    "status": "READY",
    "label": "SIMULATION \u2014 historical hardened packs (Yahoo actuals); separate from tip expected P&L",
    "net_pnl_usd": 50600.4,
    "ending_capital_usd": 150600.4,
    "days": 11,
    "daily": [
      {
        "date": "2025-12-24",
        "simulated_pnl_usd": -3467.1,
        "simulated_equity": 96532.9,
        "direction_accuracy_pct": 35.0,
        "trade_count": 20
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-01-28",
        "simulated_pnl_usd": 1457.6,
        "simulated_equity": 97990.5,
        "direction_accuracy_pct": 65.0,
        "trade_count": 20
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-03",
        "simulated_pnl_usd": -2601.3,
        "simulated_equity": 95389.2,
        "direction_accuracy_pct": 0.0,
        "trade_count": 1
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-06",
        "simulated_pnl_usd": 9956.7,
        "simulated_equity": 105345.9,
        "direction_accuracy_pct": 70.0,
        "trade_count": 20
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-09",
        "simulated_pnl_usd": 15581.3,
        "simulated_equity": 120927.2,
        "direction_accuracy_pct": 65.0,
        "trade_count": 20
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-11",
        "simulated_pnl_usd": 12845.0,
        "simulated_equity": 133772.2,
        "direction_accuracy_pct": 60.0,
        "trade_count": 20
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-13",
        "simulated_pnl_usd": -871.7,
        "simulated_equity": 132900.5,
        "direction_accuracy_pct": 50.0,
        "trade_count": 20
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-23",
        "simulated_pnl_usd": 17550.7,
        "simulated_equity": 150451.2,
        "direction_accuracy_pct": 65.0,
        "trade_count": 20
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-24",
        "simulated_pnl_usd": -3326.0,
        "simulated_equity": 147125.2,
        "direction_accuracy_pct": 50.0,
        "trade_count": 20
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-02-25",
        "simulated_pnl_usd": -12220.4,
        "simulated_equity": 134904.8,
        "direction_accuracy_pct": 40.0,
        "trade_count": 20
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-03-04",
        "simulated_pnl_usd": 15695.6,
        "simulated_equity": 150600.4,
        "direction_accuracy_pct": 78.57,
        "trade_count": 14
      }
    ],
    "source": "FO_41_Predict_Stocks/microsoft_evidence/outputs/pnl_vs_reality_*_hardened.json"
  },
  "yesterday_evaluation": {
    "status": "READY",
    "evaluation_date": "2026-09-08",
    "stocks_predicted": 11,
    "direction_accuracy": 0.6363636363636364,
    "price_accuracy": 0.531986660700532,
    "correct": 7,
    "rows": [
      {
        "ticker": "BAESY",
        "model": "AVG",
        "predicted_direction": "FLAT",
        "actual_direction": "FLAT",
        "direction_match": true,
        "predicted_price": 204.1673048305796,
        "actual_price": 104.66999816894531,
        "price_accuracy": 0.049419046506162134
      },
      {
        "ticker": "DAC",
        "model": "AVG",
        "predicted_direction": "FLAT",
        "actual_direction": "FLAT",
        "direction_match": true,
        "predicted_price": 229.1569564300406,
        "actual_price": 153.07000732421875,
        "price_accuracy": 0.5029271218060276
      },
      {
        "ticker": "EOG",
        "model": "AVG",
        "predicted_direction": "FLAT",
        "actual_direction": "UP",
        "direction_match": false,
        "predicted_price": 228.5077033998875,
        "actual_price": 145.36000061035156,
        "price_accuracy": 0.42798773775173804
      },
      {
        "ticker": "GD",
        "model": "AVG",
        "predicted_direction": "FLAT",
        "actual_direction": "FLAT",
        "direction_match": true,
        "predicted_price": 336.9503093059281,
        "actual_price": 356.5799865722656,
        "price_accuracy": 0.9449501430098929
      },
      {
        "ticker": "GOOGL",
        "model": "AVG",
        "predicted_direction": "FLAT",
        "actual_direction": "FLAT",
        "direction_match": true,
        "predicted_price": 144.25245639944936,
        "actual_price": 338.3599853515625,
        "price_accuracy": 0.42632835632017274
      },
      {
        "ticker": "LMT",
        "model": "AVG",
        "predicted_direction": "FLAT",
        "actual_direction": "UP",
        "direction_match": false,
        "predicted_price": 450.1557296327489,
        "actual_price": 536.1500244140625,
        "price_accuracy": 0.839607776059894
      },
      {
        "ticker": "MSFT",
        "model": "AVG",
        "predicted_direction": "FLAT",
        "actual_direction": "FLAT",
        "direction_match": true,
        "predicted_price": 734.5180240579712,
        "actual_price": 493.95001220703125,
        "price_accuracy": 0.5129709365203747
      },
      {
        "ticker": "PANW",
        "model": "AVG",
        "predicted_direction": "FLAT",
        "actual_direction": "UP",
        "direction_match": false,
        "predicted_price": 488.7609905338368,
        "actual_price": 336.9800109863281,
        "price_accuracy": 0.5495846204549306
      },
      {
        "ticker": "QQQ",
        "model": "AVG",
        "predicted_direction": "FLAT",
        "actual_direction": "FLAT",
        "direction_match": true,
        "predicted_price": 100.12151948660453,
        "actual_price": 718.3599853515625,
        "price_accuracy": 0.13937513437306148
      },
      {
        "ticker": "TSM",
        "model": "AVG",
        "predicted_direction": "UP",
        "actual_direction": "UP",
        "direction_match": true,
        "predicted_price": 540.0583298306268,
        "actual_price": 439.0,
        "price_accuracy": 0.7697987930965221
      },
      {
        "ticker": "TXN",
        "model": "AVG",
        "predicted_direction": "FLAT",
        "actual_direction": "UP",
        "direction_match": false,
        "predicted_price": 339.46909702516604,
        "actual_price": 258.9200134277344,
        "price_accuracy": 0.6889036018070761
      }
    ],
    "source": "T_53 SELECTED + T_42_Evaluation_Results_For_Predict_Selected_Archive",
    "selection_rule": "MAX(Date) from T_53_Daily_Accuracy_Run_History Scope=SELECTED",
    "note": "Dynamically selected latest completed SELECTED evaluation session."
  },
  "provenance": {
    "historical": "T_53_Daily_Accuracy_Run_History Scope=SELECTED",
    "historical_public_filter": "Presentation only: Direction_Accuracy >= 60%; PREDICTION_DATE visible; RUN_DATE never shown",
    "historical_pnl": "Predicted/Realized session P&L: long-only UP equal-weight $100k + 2bps; T_04 Predicted_Return + T_42 Actual_Price implied realized return",
    "forecast": "T_04 selected packs with date > latest T_53 SELECTED eval",
    "yesterday": "MAX(Date) T_53 SELECTED + T_42 archive detail",
    "pnl_tip": "Predicted_Return on UP signals from open tip pack only",
    "pnl_history": "microsoft_evidence hardened packs"
  }
}