{
  "assumptions": {
    "starting_capital_usd": 100000.0,
    "position_rule": "Long-only on UP; DOWN / flat = no position (not short).",
    "entry_exit": "Signal date close \u2192 next-session close return from evaluation Actual_Return.",
    "sizing": "Equal weight across instruments with an UP signal that day.",
    "transaction_cost_bps": 1.0,
    "slippage_bps": 1.0,
    "label": "SIMULATION \u2014 not realized portfolio profit",
    "stocks_lane_note": "Primary displayed equity uses microsoft_evidence hardened PnL packs (Yahoo actuals). FO41 long-only close-gate for HIST08 is BLOCKED.",
    "position_rule_microsoft_pack": "Hardened consensus may include SHORT; not FO41 long-only policy."
  },
  "status": "READY",
  "fo41_hist08_gate": "blocked_no_eligible_trades",
  "fo41_hist08_net_pnl": "Unknown",
  "starting_capital": 100000.0,
  "ending_capital_simulated": 150600.4,
  "ending_capital_actual_market": null,
  "net_pnl_simulated": 50600.4,
  "net_pnl_actual_market": null,
  "max_drawdown_simulated": 0.103332,
  "win_count": 111,
  "loss_count": 84,
  "flat_count": 0,
  "trade_count": 195,
  "days_with_returns": 11,
  "equity_curve_simulated": [
    100000.0,
    96532.9,
    97990.5,
    95389.2,
    105345.9,
    120927.2,
    133772.2,
    132900.5,
    150451.2,
    147125.2,
    134904.8,
    150600.4
  ],
  "equity_curve_actual_market": [],
  "daily": [
    {
      "date": "2025-12-24",
      "simulated_pnl_usd": -3467.1,
      "actual_market_pnl_usd": null,
      "simulated_equity": 96532.9,
      "actual_market_equity": null,
      "up_positions": 3,
      "down_no_position": 17,
      "instruments_with_returns": 20,
      "source_file": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2025-12-24_hardened.json",
      "actuals_source": "yahoo(+db_fallback)",
      "note": "Hardened microsoft_evidence pack; shorts used historically \u2014 labeled SIMULATION and distinct from FO41 long-only policy"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-01-28",
      "simulated_pnl_usd": 1457.6,
      "actual_market_pnl_usd": null,
      "simulated_equity": 97990.5,
      "actual_market_equity": null,
      "up_positions": 10,
      "down_no_position": 10,
      "instruments_with_returns": 20,
      "source_file": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-01-28_hardened.json",
      "actuals_source": "yahoo(+db_fallback)",
      "note": "Hardened microsoft_evidence pack; shorts used historically \u2014 labeled SIMULATION and distinct from FO41 long-only policy"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-03",
      "simulated_pnl_usd": -2601.3,
      "actual_market_pnl_usd": null,
      "simulated_equity": 95389.2,
      "actual_market_equity": null,
      "up_positions": 0,
      "down_no_position": 1,
      "instruments_with_returns": 1,
      "source_file": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-03_hardened.json",
      "actuals_source": "yahoo(+db_fallback)",
      "note": "Hardened microsoft_evidence pack; shorts used historically \u2014 labeled SIMULATION and distinct from FO41 long-only policy"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-06",
      "simulated_pnl_usd": 9956.7,
      "actual_market_pnl_usd": null,
      "simulated_equity": 105345.9,
      "actual_market_equity": null,
      "up_positions": 0,
      "down_no_position": 20,
      "instruments_with_returns": 20,
      "source_file": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-06_hardened.json",
      "actuals_source": "yahoo(+db_fallback)",
      "note": "Hardened microsoft_evidence pack; shorts used historically \u2014 labeled SIMULATION and distinct from FO41 long-only policy"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-09",
      "simulated_pnl_usd": 15581.3,
      "actual_market_pnl_usd": null,
      "simulated_equity": 120927.2,
      "actual_market_equity": null,
      "up_positions": 0,
      "down_no_position": 20,
      "instruments_with_returns": 20,
      "source_file": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-09_hardened.json",
      "actuals_source": "yahoo(+db_fallback)",
      "note": "Hardened microsoft_evidence pack; shorts used historically \u2014 labeled SIMULATION and distinct from FO41 long-only policy"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-11",
      "simulated_pnl_usd": 12845.0,
      "actual_market_pnl_usd": null,
      "simulated_equity": 133772.2,
      "actual_market_equity": null,
      "up_positions": 0,
      "down_no_position": 20,
      "instruments_with_returns": 20,
      "source_file": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-11_hardened.json",
      "actuals_source": "yahoo(+db_fallback)",
      "note": "Hardened microsoft_evidence pack; shorts used historically \u2014 labeled SIMULATION and distinct from FO41 long-only policy"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-13",
      "simulated_pnl_usd": -871.7,
      "actual_market_pnl_usd": null,
      "simulated_equity": 132900.5,
      "actual_market_equity": null,
      "up_positions": 0,
      "down_no_position": 20,
      "instruments_with_returns": 20,
      "source_file": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-13_hardened.json",
      "actuals_source": "yahoo(+db_fallback)",
      "note": "Hardened microsoft_evidence pack; shorts used historically \u2014 labeled SIMULATION and distinct from FO41 long-only policy"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-23",
      "simulated_pnl_usd": 17550.7,
      "actual_market_pnl_usd": null,
      "simulated_equity": 150451.2,
      "actual_market_equity": null,
      "up_positions": 17,
      "down_no_position": 3,
      "instruments_with_returns": 20,
      "source_file": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-23_hardened.json",
      "actuals_source": "yahoo(+db_fallback)",
      "note": "Hardened microsoft_evidence pack; shorts used historically \u2014 labeled SIMULATION and distinct from FO41 long-only policy"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-24",
      "simulated_pnl_usd": -3326.0,
      "actual_market_pnl_usd": null,
      "simulated_equity": 147125.2,
      "actual_market_equity": null,
      "up_positions": 10,
      "down_no_position": 10,
      "instruments_with_returns": 20,
      "source_file": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-24_hardened.json",
      "actuals_source": "yahoo(+db_fallback)",
      "note": "Hardened microsoft_evidence pack; shorts used historically \u2014 labeled SIMULATION and distinct from FO41 long-only policy"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-02-25",
      "simulated_pnl_usd": -12220.4,
      "actual_market_pnl_usd": null,
      "simulated_equity": 134904.8,
      "actual_market_equity": null,
      "up_positions": 3,
      "down_no_position": 17,
      "instruments_with_returns": 20,
      "source_file": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-25_hardened.json",
      "actuals_source": "yahoo(+db_fallback)",
      "note": "Hardened microsoft_evidence pack; shorts used historically \u2014 labeled SIMULATION and distinct from FO41 long-only policy"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-03-04",
      "simulated_pnl_usd": 15695.6,
      "actual_market_pnl_usd": null,
      "simulated_equity": 150600.4,
      "actual_market_equity": null,
      "up_positions": 1,
      "down_no_position": 13,
      "instruments_with_returns": 14,
      "source_file": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-03-04_hardened.json",
      "actuals_source": "yahoo(+db_fallback)",
      "note": "Hardened microsoft_evidence pack; shorts used historically \u2014 labeled SIMULATION and distinct from FO41 long-only policy"
    }
  ],
  "tip_or_null_return_rows": [],
  "null_return_row_count": 0,
  "traceability": {
    "five_day_campaign": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\docs\\41B_runs\\FIVE_DAY_TEST_20260913_125417\\comparison.json",
    "hist08_gate": "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\docs\\41B_simulations\\SIM_HIST_HIST08_233437_CLOSE_GATE\\validation.json",
    "microsoft_packs": [
      "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2025-12-24_hardened.json",
      "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-01-28_hardened.json",
      "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-03_hardened.json",
      "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-06_hardened.json",
      "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-09_hardened.json",
      "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-11_hardened.json",
      "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-13_hardened.json",
      "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-23_hardened.json",
      "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-24_hardened.json",
      "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-02-25_hardened.json",
      "C:\\AI_Capital_9\\FO_41_Predict_Stocks\\microsoft_evidence\\outputs\\pnl_vs_reality_2026-03-04_hardened.json"
    ],
    "db_eval_table": "T_05_Nc_05_Evaluation_Results"
  },
  "note": "FO41 HIST08 close-gate PnL remains blocked_no_eligible_trades. FIVE_DAY comparison.json pnl=null. Using microsoft_evidence hardened packs for SIMULATION vs Yahoo actuals (separate lane; includes shorts).",
  "t40_row_count": 9
}